The 17 states where deaths now outnumber births

Natural change, births minus deaths, used to be the main source of population growth in almost every state. It no longer is. The Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates count 17 states where deaths exceeded births in the year to June 2025, and 34¹, counting DC, where births were still ahead.

The largest natural decreases

In numbers, Pennsylvania had the largest shortfall of births: −10,708 in one year. It was followed by West Virginia (−7,887), Maine (−5,019), Michigan (−4,998) and Oregon (−3,764). Relative to population, the steepest were West Virginia (−4.5 per 1,000 residents), Maine (−3.6 per 1,000 residents) and Vermont (−2.7 per 1,000 residents¹).

Kentucky−0.0

Florida−0.1

Ohio−0.1

Montana−0.1

Rhode Island−0.3

Arkansas−0.4

Alabama−0.4

Michigan−0.5

Delaware−0.5

Pennsylvania−0.8

Mississippi−0.9

Oregon−0.9

New Mexico−0.9

New Hampshire−1.5

Vermont−2.7

Maine−3.6

West Virginia−4.5

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025. Period: July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025.

Show the numbers

State	Natural change rate per 1,000
Kentucky	−0.0
Florida	−0.1
Ohio	−0.1
Montana	−0.1
Rhode Island	−0.3
Arkansas	−0.4
Alabama	−0.4
Michigan	−0.5
Delaware	−0.5
Pennsylvania	−0.8
Mississippi	−0.9
Oregon	−0.9
New Mexico	−0.9
New Hampshire	−1.5
Vermont	−2.7
Maine	−3.6
West Virginia	−4.5

Age is the common thread

The states with the oldest populations are the ones where deaths outnumber births. The five states with the highest share of residents aged 65 and older, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Delaware and Florida³, all recorded natural decrease. Maine, with the highest median age in the country (45.1 years⁴), had −5,019¹.

Florida is the largest state on the list. With 22.8% of residents aged 65 and older, tied for 4th highest³, it recorded −1,333 in the year to June 2025, and over the five years since the 2020 Census it had the largest cumulative natural decrease of any state: −102,970¹.

At the other end, Texas (157,711) and California (109,715¹) had the largest natural increases. Both have median ages below the national figure.

Most of these states still grew

Natural decrease does not mean a shrinking population. Of the 17 states, only Vermont (−1,858), West Virginia (−1,255) and New Mexico (−1,276¹) lost residents between July 2024 and July 2025. The rest gained people from other states, from abroad or both.

Components may not add exactly to the total change because of the residual the Census Bureau cannot assign. Pennsylvania lost residents to other states but gained more from abroad; Maine and West Virginia gained from other states; Mississippi's growth came from international migration.

The five-year view

Over the whole period from April 2020 to June 2025, 20 states recorded more deaths than births: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont and West Virginia. The longer list adds Missouri, South Carolina and Tennessee, where deaths far outnumbered births in the estimate years to June 2021 and June 2022; since then the two have been close, and births were ahead in all three in the year to June 2025. Over the five years the country as a whole still recorded 1,939,907 more births than deaths, far fewer than the 8,328,837¹ added by net international migration.

What to watch

Net international migration fell by more than half nationally in 2025, from 2,734,468 to 1,262,202. For states with natural decrease and domestic out-migration, arrivals from abroad were the only source of growth, so the next vintage of estimates, due in December 2026, will show whether more of them begin to shrink. The national natural increase, 518,858, was little changed from 514,277¹ the year before.