Where residents 65 and older now outnumber children

Count the residents of each state twice, once for everyone aged 65 and older and once for everyone under 18. Then compare the two totals. In the Census Bureau's population estimates for July 1, 2025, the older count is the larger one in Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Florida, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Hawaii, Delaware, Oregon, Montana, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut, South Carolina, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Michigan. Five years earlier only the first four of those and West Virginia were in that position.

The two shares in the table use the same total population, so wherever the 65-and-older share is the higher one, older residents also outnumber children in raw numbers. These are estimates, not survey results, so they carry no margin of error; the Census Bureau revises them every year, and a state close to the line, such as Michigan, could move back across it in a later vintage.

The United States has not crossed yet

For the country as a whole, children are still the larger group: 72,021,348 residents under 18 against 64,617,088 aged 65 and older on July 1, 2025. The gap is closing from both sides. Since 2020 the older population grew by 8,669,081 (15.5%), while the number of children fell by 1,638,599 (2.2%). The 65-and-older share rose to 18.9%, up from 16.9% in 2020, and the under-18 share is now 21.1%, down from 22.2% in 2020¹.

The Census Bureau's 2017 national projections, released in March 2018, put the year when older people would first outnumber children nationally at 2034, and noted that by 2030 all baby boomers will be older than 65 (Census Bureau press release CB18-41). That is a projection, not an estimate. The state figures on this page show where that crossing has already happened.

Maine and Vermont, the furthest across the line

Maine has the widest margin. Its 347,617 residents aged 65 and older compare with 244,245 under 18. The older share, 24.6%, is the highest in the nation and 5.7 percentage points above the US figure (18.9%). Since 2020 Maine added 48,693 (16.3%) older residents and lost 8,951 (3.5%)¹ children.

Vermont is close behind, with 155,289 residents 65 and older and 109,614 under 18. Its under-18 share, 17.0%, is lowest among the 50 states and DC. New Hampshire, the third state in northern New England, has 325,383 older residents and 245,065¹ children.

MenWomenUnited States

MenWomen

85+

80–84

75–79

70–74

65–69

60–64

55–59

50–54

45–49

40–44

35–39

30–34

25–29

20–24

15–19

10–14

5–9

0–4

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025. Share of the total population in each age group. Vertical ticks: the United States.

Show the numbers

Age	Men (%)	Women (%)	US men (%)	US women (%)
0-4	2.21	2.05	2.76	2.65
5-9	2.41	2.30	2.96	2.83
10-14	2.59	2.43	3.08	2.95
15-19	3.04	2.83	3.31	3.16
20-24	2.86	2.70	3.43	3.28
25-29	2.92	2.88	3.46	3.37
30-34	3.08	3.05	3.41	3.38
35-39	3.28	3.28	3.38	3.40
40-44	3.05	3.12	3.21	3.27
45-49	2.79	2.87	2.93	3.03
50-54	2.86	2.94	2.83	2.96
55-59	3.10	3.33	2.86	3.02
60-64	3.57	3.89	2.96	3.21
65-69	3.52	3.94	2.75	3.08
70-74	3.05	3.46	2.26	2.64
75-79	2.35	2.70	1.71	2.08
80-84	1.34	1.65	1.00	1.32
85+	0.98	1.57	0.78	1.28

The pyramid shows the shape behind the totals: compare Maine's bars with the national ticks at the top and at the base of the chart.

Florida and South Carolina crossed while gaining children

In most of the list, the number of children fell. Two states are different. Florida had 4,442,722 residents under 18 in 2025, up from 4,276,629 in 2020, yet its older population grew much faster, by 766,195 (16.7%), to 5,346,788¹. Florida was already on the list in 2020; the gap has widened since.

South Carolina crossed during these five years even though its child population also rose, up from 1,114,815 in 2020 to 1,148,440. Its residents 65 and older increased by 195,360 (20.0%), to 1,173,259¹.

The largest states on the list

Pennsylvania is the second-largest state where older residents outnumber children: 2,799,790 aged 65 and older against 2,570,631 under 18. Since 2020 its older population grew by 311,899 (12.5%) and its child population fell by 90,780 (3.4%). Michigan is the narrowest case: 2,076,467 older residents and 2,062,770 children. In 2020 Michigan had 2,164,785 children and 1,812,224¹ residents 65 and older.

Wisconsin (1,241,547 against 1,222,107) and New Mexico (448,253 against 439,452) are also only just across. New Mexico lost 40,226 (8.4%)¹ of its children between 2020 and 2025, the steepest percentage decline in the child population of any state.

The next states to cross

Two large states are within a few percent of the line. In New York, children still lead, 3,905,391 to 3,860,551; in Arizona, 1,597,315 to 1,571,773¹. Wyoming and Ohio follow.

In all four, the number of children fell and the number of older residents rose between 2020 and 2025. New York lost 231,714 (5.6%)¹ of its children over the period, the largest decline in numbers of the four.

Furthest from the line: Utah and Texas

The states furthest from crossing have large child populations rather than small older ones. Utah has 922,267 residents under 18 and 460,179 aged 65 and older; its under-18 share, 26.1%, is highest. Texas has 7,600,514 children and 4,711,381 older residents, and its child population grew, up from 7,388,012 in 2020¹.

Alaska is the third-furthest from crossing. The District of Columbia is a different case. Its shares of both groups are small, 17.9% under 18 and 13.6% aged 65 and older, because so much of its population is of working age. The share aged 18 to 64 is 68.5%, highest¹ among the 50 states and DC.

Even in these places the older population grew faster than the child population since 2020. Residents 65 and older increased in every state and DC, while the number of children rose only in Alabama, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and DC.

Older residents per working-age adult

A second way to measure the same shift is the old-age dependency ratio: residents 65 and older for every 100 residents aged 18 to 64. It ignores children and asks how many older people there are relative to the population of working age. For the United States it was 31.5 in 2025, up from 27.7 in 2020¹.

Maine42.2

Vermont40.9

Delaware39.6

Hawaii39.2

Florida39.1

West Virginia38.9

New Hampshire38.5

Montana38.5

Pennsylvania36.4

New Mexico36.2

South Carolina36.1

Wyoming35.8

Wisconsin35.4

Arizona35.3

Oregon35.1

Iowa34.8

Michigan34.7

Ohio34.4

Rhode Island34.1

South Dakota33.9

Connecticut33.9

Missouri33.4

Mississippi33.1

Alabama32.9

Arkansas32.5

Minnesota32.4

Kansas32.4

Massachusetts32.3

Idaho32.2

Louisiana32.2

Kentucky31.9

New York31.5

North Carolina31.5

United States31.5

Nebraska31.5

Indiana31.2

Tennessee31.1

Illinois30.8

Oklahoma30.6

New Jersey30.5

Maryland30.4

Virginia30.3

North Dakota30.2

Nevada29.9

Washington29.8

California28.4

Colorado27.3

Georgia27.3

Alaska25.9

Texas24.3

Utah21.3

District of Columbia19.9

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025. Period: July 1, 2025.

Show the numbers

State	Old-age dependency ratio, 2025
Maine	42.2
Vermont	40.9
Delaware	39.6
Hawaii	39.2
Florida	39.1
West Virginia	38.9
New Hampshire	38.5
Montana	38.5
Pennsylvania	36.4
New Mexico	36.2
South Carolina	36.1
Wyoming	35.8
Wisconsin	35.4
Arizona	35.3
Oregon	35.1
Iowa	34.8
Michigan	34.7
Ohio	34.4
Rhode Island	34.1
South Dakota	33.9
Connecticut	33.9
Missouri	33.4
Mississippi	33.1
Alabama	32.9
Arkansas	32.5
Minnesota	32.4
Kansas	32.4
Massachusetts	32.3
Idaho	32.2
Louisiana	32.2
Kentucky	31.9
New York	31.5
North Carolina	31.5
United States	31.5
Nebraska	31.5
Indiana	31.2
Tennessee	31.1
Illinois	30.8
Oklahoma	30.6
New Jersey	30.5
Maryland	30.4
Virginia	30.3
North Dakota	30.2
Nevada	29.9
Washington	29.8
California	28.4
Colorado	27.3
Georgia	27.3
Alaska	25.9
Texas	24.3
Utah	21.3
District of Columbia	19.9

Maine again leads (42.2), followed by Vermont (40.9), Delaware (39.6), Hawaii (39.2) and Florida (39.1). The lowest ratios are in the District of Columbia (19.9), Utah (21.3) and Texas (24.3¹).

The two measures mostly agree, but not exactly. Rhode Island has more older residents than children with a ratio of 34.1, below several states where children still lead, such as Wyoming (35.8) and Arizona (35.3). The difference comes from the child share: Rhode Island's, 17.7%, is 4th lowest¹ among the 50 states and DC, so it takes fewer older residents to outnumber its children.

Not the same list as natural decrease

States with many older residents tend to record more deaths than births, and most of the states on this list did in the year to June 2025 (see states with more deaths than births). The two lists still differ. Hawaii (2,024), Massachusetts (8,419), Connecticut (2,283), South Carolina (564) and Wisconsin (1,161) have more older residents than children but still recorded more births than deaths. Alabama (−2,188), Arkansas (−1,224), Kentucky (−83), Mississippi (−2,607) and Ohio (−729²) had natural decrease while children still outnumbered their older residents.

Every state: older residents, children and the ratio

About these figures

All counts and shares come from the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 population estimates by single year of age, for July 1, 2025, and the 2020 figures from the same series. They are not survey estimates, so the comparisons on this page carry no margin of error, but each new vintage revises the earlier years. The next estimates by age are due in June 2027. For the full rankings of each measure, see older population by state, child population by state and median age by state.