Census count or estimate? Why every state has several official populations

Search for a state's population and the answer depends on which clock the source reads. One clock strikes every ten years: the decennial census counts every resident as of April 1, 2020, and that census fixes the seats in the House of Representatives for the decade. The other ticks every year: the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program carries the count forward to July 1 of each year, adding births and net migration and subtracting deaths. For any question about how many people live in a state today, the second clock is the one to read.

The United States had 341,784,857¹ residents on July 1, 2025, according to the Vintage 2025 estimates. The 2020 Census counted 331,449,281². Both are official; they describe different dates.

The number to quote today

The July 1, 2025 estimate is the current official population of every state and the figure used for the state population ranking on this site. California leads with 39,355,309, followed by Texas (31,709,821) and Florida (23,462,518). Wyoming is the smallest at 588,753¹.

There is no official "2026 population" yet for any state. The next estimates, for July 1, 2026, are scheduled for December 2026 on the Census Bureau's release schedule. Any state figure labeled 2026 before then is not a Census Bureau estimate.

How the second clock is set

The estimates start from a fixed point, the population on April 1, 2020, and then add the three components of population change: births, deaths and migration. Each year's series is called a vintage, and each new vintage revises the whole series back to April 2020, so the July 2024 figure published in Vintage 2025, 340,003,797¹ for the US, replaces the one published a year earlier.

The chart shows both clocks for Florida, the state with the second-largest gain since 2020: the census counts every ten years, and the annual estimates since the last count.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Census Statistics on Population Totals by Race, 1790 to 1990; Census Bureau, 2020 Census apportionment results and historical resident population 1910-2020; Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025. Census counts every ten years (April 1); estimates for July 1 after 2020.

Show the numbers

Year	Florida
1980	9,746,324
1990	12,937,926
2000	15,982,378
2010	18,801,310
2020	21,538,187
2021	21,836,698
2022	22,413,989
2023	22,929,248
2024	23,265,838
2025	23,462,518

Florida's 2020 Census count was 21,538,187². Its July 2025 estimate is 23,462,518¹. The census figure is exact for its date, but it no longer answers the question "how many people live in Florida".

How far the two clocks have drifted apart

Between April 2020 and July 2025 the gap between the starting point and the estimate grew largest in the fastest-growing states. Texas added 2,560,323 people and Florida 1,924,311. Relative to size, Idaho grew most (10.36%), ahead of Florida (8.93%) and South Carolina (8.83%¹).

In 7 states the estimate is now below the starting point: California, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York and West Virginia. For them, quoting the 2020 Census overstates the current population. New York's count was 20,201,249²; its July 2025 estimate is 20,002,427¹.

Alaska0.53%

Michigan0.48%

Pennsylvania0.44%

New Mexico0.38%

Vermont0.25%

Mississippi−0.24%

California−0.51%

Illinois−0.80%

Louisiana−0.85%

New York−1.00%

Hawaii−1.54%

West Virginia−1.54%

Source: Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025. Period: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2025.

Show the numbers

State	Growth since 2020
Alaska	0.53%
Michigan	0.48%
Pennsylvania	0.44%
New Mexico	0.38%
Vermont	0.25%
Mississippi	−0.24%
California	−0.51%
Illinois	−0.80%
Louisiana	−0.85%
New York	−1.00%
Hawaii	−1.54%
West Virginia	−1.54%

The full story of who grew, and why, is in our population growth ranking and in the article on states where deaths outnumber births.

Rankings that depend on the clock

The drift is large enough to reorder the list. Several pairs of states with similar populations have traded places since the census, so a ranking built on 2020 counts and one built on 2025 estimates disagree.

Ranks among the 50 states and DC; the smaller states are ranked from the smallest. In each pair the first state, smaller in the 2020 Census, is now the larger one: Tennessee passed Massachusetts, Missouri passed Maryland, Colorado passed Wisconsin, Nevada passed Iowa, Kansas passed Mississippi, Idaho passed Nebraska and Montana passed Rhode Island. Mississippi is one of the states whose estimate is below its 2020 starting point. The largest states and the very smallest are in the same order on both clocks.

The starting point is not the census count either

The April 1, 2020 figure from which the estimates run, the estimates base, is close to the census count but not identical. For the US it is 331,516,113¹, against a count of 331,449,281². The base takes the census and adds corrections the count itself cannot receive, such as boundary updates and the results of the Post-Census Group Quarters Review, in which local governments asked the Bureau to recheck their counts of people living in group quarters. Accepted changes go to the Population Estimates Program; they "cannot change 2020 Census counts or data products, such as apportionment and redistricting."

The gaps are small. Arizona has the largest relative to its size: a base of 7,158,104 against a count of 7,151,502. In a few states the base is slightly lower than the count; South Carolina's base is 5,118,250¹ against 5,118,425². Growth "since 2020" on this site is measured from the base, not from the count.

The census count has its own margin

A census is a count, not a survey, but it is not error-free. The Census Bureau measures how well it counted with a separate survey, the Post-Enumeration Survey. For 2020 it found statistically significant net undercounts in Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas, and net overcounts in Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Utah. In the other states and DC the measured net error was not statistically different from zero.

These results do not change any count. The Census Bureau states that they cannot be used to change the final census count. Texas's count of 29,145,505 and Florida's 21,538,187² stand, although both states were found to be undercounted.

The survey totals: one copies the clock, one averages it

The American Community Survey publishes its own total population for every state, but it is not a separate count. The survey is weighted to the population estimates, so its 2025 total for Texas, 31,709,821⁴, matches the July 1, 2025 estimate of 31,709,821¹, and the same holds, to within a few people, in every state. Use the survey for what it adds, such as income, education or language, and the estimates for the headcount.

The 5-year survey release is different. Its total is an average over the five calendar years 2020 to 2024, so it describes a period, not a date. In a growing state it lags the current estimate: in South Carolina, which has the widest gap relative to its size, the 2020–2024 average is 5,296,225 and the July 2025 estimate 5,570,274; in Texas 30,188,424 against 31,709,821. In a state that has lost residents the average runs above the current figure: Hawaii's is 1,445,235 against an estimate of 1,432,820, and West Virginia's 1,778,373 against 1,766,147¹. Nationally the 5-year total is 334,922,499⁵.

A fourth figure decides House seats

The seats in the House of Representatives are divided after each census by the apportionment population, which, as the Census Bureau explains, adds US military and federal civilian employees stationed abroad, and their dependents, to the resident counts of their home states. It is neither the resident count nor the estimate, and it does not change until the 2030 Census.

Hawaii shows the difference. It has 2 House seats, each representing an apportionment population of 730,068. Taken together, the seats represent more people than the census counted as living in Hawaii, 1,455,271², because of residents stationed abroad; the July 2025 estimate, 1,432,820¹, is lower than both. Across the states, the apportionment population per seat runs from 542,704 in Montana to 990,837 in Delaware⁶; the District of Columbia has no voting seat and no apportionment population.

Every figure for every state

The table puts the four population figures side by side for the 50 states and DC. Select a column heading to sort.

Each state page, for example Texas, repeats these figures for its own state in its "at a glance" block, and the population hub explains them for the US.

What changes in December 2026

When Vintage 2026 is released, every number on the estimates clock moves: July 1, 2026 is added, and July 2020 through July 2025 are revised with new data and methods. The census count and the apportionment population stay as they are until the 2030 Census resets the first clock. Rankings, growth rates and the gaps described here will be updated with the new vintage.